Preston on Politics: On The Campaign Trail

Friday, August 29, 2008

Sarah Palin: A Very Interesting VP Choice

Clearly, John McCain wants attention because he did not go the safe route in selecting his VP pick. Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin shakes up the political matchup between McCain and Barack Obama in several key ways. The first effect is giving Hillary Clinton supporters a pathway to continue to vent their frustrations. Following Obama’s speech last night, the choice of Palin plays well to keep the momentum going in the GOP’s efforts to drive Clinton supporters away from Obama. Those are the short term benefits of selecting Palin: media attention and momentum with women. Long-term, there are significant challenges that may surface. Does Palin’s relative youth and inexperience compared to McCain, Biden, and even Obama, eliminate one of McCain’s strongest debating points, that Obama is not ready to lead? And does Palin standing next to McCain paint the GOP nominee as even older than his 72 years of age already reflects? For a political junkie, the pick is great for discussion. But Palin now faces considerable pressure to become presidential, knowing that a turn of events could put the former small town mayor in charge of the free world.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

McCain Set to Name VP in Dayton; Obama, Biden to Dublin on Saturday

The Buckeye state shines in the national political spotlight over the next 48 hours, first with Senator John McCain in Dayton, where he is expected to announced his V.P. pick. A day later, Senator Barack Obama and Senator Joe Biden will speak at Dublin-Coffman High School. Doors open at 4:30pm and the speech is set for 6:45pm. The event is open to the public and free, but the campaign is urging those wishing to attend to visit the Obama website to RSVP.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Questions About The Democratic National Convention?

Do you have questions about the Democratic National Convention? Here’s your chance to get an answer!

Monday, August 25, 2008

Stivers On the Air in 15th Congressional District

Republican State Senator Steve Stivers debuted his first campaign commercial that’s set to begin running in central Ohio on Tuesday. Like his 15th Congressional District Democratic opponent Mary Jo Kilroy did with her first ad, Stivers introduces himself by telling his back story, matching Kilroy’s motherly appeal with his tale of serving in the Persian Gulf. Here is how the campaign describes the ad.

The ad, named “True Example”, presents three people who served and worked with Senator Stivers during his service in the Ohio Army National Guard.  In their own words, they discuss their thoughts on Senator Stivers’ character and leadership.  Stivers is a 23-year veteran of the Ohio National Guard, currently holding the rank of Lieutenant Colonel.

With ten weeks left until the election, it will be interesting to take note of when the commercials start to turn ugly. For now, the positive approach is a welcome contrast to the direction the presidential election is turning.

Biden Pick Gives McCain a Chance to Make a Splash

Barack Obama made a safe pick Saturday in opting for Delaware Senator Joe Biden to serve as his running mate. A very safe pick with little wow factor to offer, as Biden brings much credibility in the realm of foreign affairs and should be an effective campaigner against Republicans, filling the attack dog role that John Edwards never realized in 2004. Biden has some unfortunate statements that may surface in the next few months, as well as some less than flattering remarks related to Obama, but those statements actually give Obama an opportunity to argue that he can work with someone who has criticized him in the past, and thus can effectively work across the aisle. This, just as Republicans have begun to question his bipartisanship as Obama is cast as falling to the extreme left of the political spectrum.

Two months ago, Bexley resident David Wilhelm, the former campaign manager for Bill Clinton and early Obama advocate, told me he liked Biden as a VP candidate, but at the time could not be certain where Obama would head with the selection.

Obama’s choice reflects a strategic decision to shore up a perceived weakness, as well as a decision to steer away from the rapid change that some voters might reject had the first African-American candidate sought to create another first with the VP spot. Selecting Biden over Hillary Clinton, or Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, gives McCain an opening to make a splash with his choice of a vice presidential candidate. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty are among the names being prominently discussed. Selecting either Romney or Pawlenty wouldn’t make waves, nor would those choices impact the election in the way that picking popular Alaska Governor Sarah Palin or Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson could have on capturing a significant chunk of Clinton’s supporters.

I spoke with McCain campaign advisor Carly Fiorina earlier this morning from Denver. She and other McCain supporters are approaching Democrats in Denver, including convention delegates, in hopes of wooing them into the McCain camp. Fiorina was clearly intent on deepening the wedge between Obama and Clinton supporters, as she said the Republican convention in Minneapolis next week truly will be united in contrast to what she described as a united front in Denver, with a divided underbelly. McCain is going to be in Ohio later this week, with the distinct possibility that he could name his VP pick while here.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

15th Congressional District Candidates to Debate Live on NBC4

Good news for debate fans, the leading candidates in the race for Ohio’s 15th Congressional District seat have agreed to debate live on NBC4 in a debate co-sponsored by the AARP. The debate will take place on Tuesday, September 16th at 7pm inside Ohio State University’s Fawcett Center.

The candidates to appear are:
-Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, Franklin County Commissioner
-Republican Steve Stivers, State Senator representing Upper Arlington
-Independent Don Elijah Eckhart, former state government employee

Eckhart polled high enough in the recent Survey USA sample to warrant inclusion in the debate, while Libertarian Party candidate Mark Noble has not reached the threshold to participate.

Monday, August 18, 2008

Clintons Are Done With Dinner, Moving on to Convention Contest

The fundraising creativity continues…

In the wake of the “Dinner with Hillary” campaign debt retirement contest, Team Clinton is now offering a chance to head to the Democratic Convention in Denver and chat with Hillary and Bill while there. Of course, a campaign contribution is required and a winner will be randomly selected. What’s most impressive is to think that this sales pitch is coming from a former President, and not from other celebrities I imagine were available, such as Alan Thicke, Joan Rivers, or Gary Coleman.

Here is the latest letter “from Bill”:

I have played so many roles at so many Democratic National Conventions. I’ve been there as a campaign worker, a governor, a keynote speaker, a nominee, a president, and a former president.

Contribute before midnight tonight for a chance to join me and Hillary in Denver next week.

FYI: A woman from Tacoma, Washington won the dinner contest.

Stivers Picks Up Police Endorsement

Steve Stivers’ campaign announces an endorsement pick up in the 15th Congressional District race:

Today, State Senator Steve Stivers received the endorsement of the Fraternal Order of Police Capital City Lodge #9 in his race for the Ohio’s 15th Congressional District.  The Capital City Lodge #9 is the fifth largest local lodge in the F.O.P. with more than 4,000 members and represents 27 law enforcement agencies throughout Franklin County.

Kilroy’s First Campaign Ad: “Mom”… of the Year

In the first television ad in the 15th Congressional District race between Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy and Republican Steve Stivers, Kilroy takes to the airwaves with “Mom”; a political ad that could easily be mistaken as part of a campaign to win “Mom of the Year.”

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Ohio Field Office Count: Obama 30+, McCain 14

Barack Obama’s campaign announced today a plan to open a total of 43 field offices across Ohio by the end of next week. Currently, the campaign has more than 30 offices open, including two in Columbus, one in Chillicothe, and one in Portsmouth.

Learning from the shortcomings of the John Kerry campaign in 2004, Obama spokesperson Isaac Baker said the Democrats are determined to reach out to rural voters in more significant ways, including the expanded ground game.

“John Kerry’s campaign did not have offices in Troy, Ohio,” Baker said. “They didn’t have them in Perry County, Ohio. And they certainly didn’t have them three months before Election Day.”

Baker said the campaign will rely less on television advertising and more on field operations. In a conference call with reporters today, Governor Ted Strickland said, “I have never seen a presidential campaign in Ohio come anywhere close to where this campaign is organizationally, and in terms of having actual man and woman power in the field.”

John McCain’s campaign has 14 Ohio offices open, with the possibility of more to come. House Speaker Jon Husted, a state co-chair for McCain’s Ohio operation said voters don’t care about the number of offices a candidate opens. Instead, Husted pointed to issues such as energy independence and an economic plan as being the determining factors for who will carry Ohio.

Told of the Obama campaign’s hope to perform better in rural Ohio than John Kerry did four years ago, Husted laughed out loud and said, “Obama will get smoked.”

Strickland Asked to Speak in Denver

Governor Ted Strickland said today he has been asked to speak at the Democratic National Convention in Denver later this month. Participating in a conference call with reporters to discuss the Obama campaign’s strategy for winning Ohio, Strickland divulged that Obama asked him to deliver a speech on Tuesday, the same night that Hillary Clinton is scheduled to speak, though it is not clear when Strickland will give his speech. Strickland supported Clinton in the primary campaign and his support in the general election is seen as vital to convincing rural Ohio voters to back Obama. Strickland said his speech will focus on the economy.

Thursday, August 07, 2008

Stivers Campaign: The Polling Data Gives Us Momentum

Steve Stivers’ campaign manager, Mike Hartley, called to let me know today that he disagreed with a few of my assertions. First off, Hartley says Kilroy enjoys stronger name recognition at the moment thanks to her tenure as Franklin County Commissioner, while Stivers is still introducing himself to much of the district. In my last post I mentioned Stivers and Kilroy both having high name recognition, but I neglected to mention that observation was based on anecdotal evidence, and not based on research documenting voter familiarity. Most people I speak with are familiar with Stivers from his time representing Upper Arlington in the State Senate, but the people I speak with on a regular basis may not be representative of the district as a whole. Point taken. Hartley thinks Stivers has room for growth as more voters become familiar with his candidate, as both campaigns look for signs of momentum in the final three months.

Second, Hartley asked me to double check the survey numbers to see whether Independent candidate Don Eckhart is siphoning votes from Stivers or Kilroy. To Hartley’s point, the Survey USA poll shows Eckhart enjoys greater support among self-identified Democrats than Republicans and, as I mentioned, more support from pro-choice voters than pro-life voters. Hence, Eckhart may not play the role of the spoiler if those numbers hold. One other stat that jumps out, Stivers leads by three points among white voters, but is getting crushed by Kilroy (+64) among black voters. 

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Kilroy, Stivers Are Neck and Neck in New Poll; Eckhart May Be a Spoiler

A new Survey USA poll focusing on Ohio’s 15th Congressional District race shows Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy leading Republican Steve Stivers 47-44 percent in a survey of 567 likely voters. The gap is within the Survey USA poll’s 4.2 percent margin of error. The poll, conducted exclusively for NBC4, shows that Kilroy enjoys wide support among voters ages 18-34, leading Stivers by a 60-32 percent margin within the category. She also is winning with those who describe themselves as independents (+17) and moderates (+18). Stivers is winning handily in Madison (+25) and Union (+24) counties, with Kilroy carrying Franklin County by seven points. Given Kilroy’s 2006 run for office, the closeness the polling suggests should be welcome news to Stivers. One in four respondents said they could change their mind.

The troubling news for the Stivers campaign is the presence of Independent candidate Don Eckhart who picks up the support of seven percent of poll respondants. Eckhart is a conservative and is touting his status as the only candidate with a pro-life stance on abortion, though Eckhart’s support is evenly split between voters who identify themselves as pro-life and pro-choice. Were Stivers to pick up Eckhart’s support, he would hold a 51-47 lead. Interestingly, only two percent of respondents said they were undecided, as both Stivers and Kilroy enjoy high name recognition within the district.

Friday, August 01, 2008

Campaign Debt Contest Update: Bill Pitches The Dinner

Apparently, Hillary’s campaign debt contest is the last hope. The dinner prize gets pitched again by Bill. Here’s part of his email.

During the campaign, Hillary and I didn’t have the chance to eat together much because we were usually on the trail in different states. Now that the campaign’s over, I’m glad we can share more meals again. 

Of all the people I’ve had the privilege to break bread with, the person I most enjoy is still Hillary.

That’s about as warm a wish for having dinner with your wife as it gets..."still Hillary.” But Bill is either taunting Clinton supporters or devaluing the dinner by giving away the fact that he eats with her often. To him, winning the contest wouldn’t be such a big deal. The dinners are aplenty now that the campaign is done. But that reminds me...why was Bill usually campaigning in different states?