Ben’s Weather Blog
The recurrent dip in the jet stream, or prevailing northwesterly current in the jet stream, suggests we may be in for a rougher and earlier winter than we ahve become accustomed to. There are many variables to play out, including North Atlantic pressure patterns driven by sea-surface temperatures, and the small chance of a Pacific event (El Nino) developing at some point. In the meantime, all we have to go on are the abnormally cold conditions in Alaska and northern Canada and persistence of the pattern that has materialized in recent weeks after a balmy start to November.
Nature signs are mixed and pointing to milder conditions, which the National Weather Service has also predicted. This shows how long-range forecasting remains largely an educated guess and somewhat subjective depending on how the individual forecaster or woollybear caterpillar weighs different variables.
One final point of interest is the absence of sunspots, since that suggests a quieter solar period that might tilt us toward a colder winter. Stay tuned for updates!
